Perbandingan Analisis Dekomposisi dan Exponential Smoothing Holt Winters untuk Peramalan Rata-Rata Jumlah KPM PKH di NTB

Program Keluarga Harapan (PKH) adalah program pemberian bantuan sosial bersyarat kepada keluarga miskin dan rentan terdaftar dalam Data Terpadu Kesejahteraan Sosial (DTKS) dan ditetapkan sebagai Keluarga Penerima Manfaat (KPM). Tujuan penelitian ini untuk meramalkan rata-rata jumlah PKM PKH untuk periode 2021. Hal ini dapat dijadikan dasar bagi instansi pemerintah terkait dalam perencanaan kedepannya. Untuk mendapatkan peramalan terbaik digunakan perbandingan dua metode yaitu metode dekomposisi dan metode Exponential Smoothing Holt Winters. Untuk mencapai tujuan penelitian tersebut dilakukan perhitungan kesalahan yang terdiri dari Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE), Mean Absolute Deviation (MAD), dan Mean Square Deviation (MSD). Berdasarkan hasil analisis data, diketahui metode peramalan terbaik untuk meramalkan rata-rata jumlah KPM PKH di provinsi NTB adalah metode Exponential Smoothing Holt Winters. Metode ini dikatakan lebih baik karena memiliki nilai error lebih kecil dibandingkan dengan nilai error metode dekomposisi. Metode Exponential Smoothing Holt Winters menggunakan nilai pemulusan ? = 0,3, ? = 0,1, ??? ? = 0,2 menghasilkan nilai MAPE = 15, MAD = 2761, dan MSD = 1692444

PENEGAKAN HUKUM TINDAK PIDANA KORUPSI DI PENGADILAN TINDAK PIDANA KORUPSI PADA PENGADILAN NEGERI PALEMBANG KELAS I-A KHUSUS (STUDI KASUS NO. 35/PID.SUS-TPK/2021/PN.PLG)

Abstrak Pengadilan Tindak Pidana Korupsi dibentuk berdasarkan pasal 5 Undang-undang Nomor 46 Tahun 2009 tentang Pengadilan Tindak Pidana Korupsi, untuk mengembalikan kepercayaan masyarakat terhadap sistem peradilan di Indonesia serta upaya pemerintah memberantas korupsi. Permasalahan : 1. Bagaimana penegakan hukum Tindak Pidana Korupsi di Pengadilan Tindak Pidana Korupsi pada Pengadilan Negeri Palembang Kelas I-A Khusus ; 2. Apa hambatanhambatan dalam penegakan hukum Tindak Pidana Korupsi di Pengadilan Tindak Pidana Korupsi pada Pengadilan Negeri Palembang Kelas I-A Khusus?. Metode Penelitian yang digunakan adalah penelitian hukum Normatif yaitu menganalisis buku-buku dan dokumen-dokumen yang berkaitan dengan penegakan hukum tindak pidana korupsi dan dilakukan studi keperpustakaan untuk kesempurnaan data atau bahan yang diteliti, mendeskripsikan dan menguraikan data dan bahan yang tersusun secara terperinci dan sistematis. Dari hasil penelitian yang ditemukan sebagai berikut : 1. Penegakan hukum dalam perkara tindak pidana korupsi (studi kasus No. 35/PID.SUS-TPK/2021/PNPLG), diputus Terdakwa terbukti secara sah dan meyakinkan bersalah melakukan “tindak pidana korupsi secara bersama-sama dan secara berlanjut” sebagaimana dalam Dakwaan Komulatif Kesatu Alternatif Pertama melanggar Pasal 12 huruf a Undang-undang No.31 Tahun 1999 jo. Undang-undang No.20 Tahun 2021 tentang Pemberantasan Tindak Pidana Korupsi jo. Pasal 55 ayat (1) ke-1 KUHP jo. Pasal 64 ayat (1) KUHP. Terdakwa dibebani uang pengganti, yang penghitungannya bukan dari audit instansi yang berwenang, seperti : BPK atau BPKP ; 2. Hambatan Struktural, yang sumbernya dari praktik penyelenggaraan negara dan pemerintahan; Hambatan Instrumental, yang sumbernya dari kurangnya instrumen pendukung berupa peraturan perundang-undangan; dan Hambatan Manajemen, yang sumbernya dari diabaikannya atau tidak diterapkannya prinsip manajemen yang baik, komitmen, adil, transparan dan akuntabel, sehingga membuat penanganan tindak pidana korupsi tidak berjalan sebagaimana mestinya. Kata Kunci: Penegakan Hukum, Hambatan dan Tindak Pidana Korupsi M. Dian Alam Pura, Saepuddin Zahri, Khalisah Hayatuddi 26 Jurnal Hukum Doctrinal: Volume 7, Nomor 2, September 2022 Abstract The Corruption Court was established based on Article 5 of Law Number 46 of 2009 concerning the Corruption Court, to restore public confidence in the judicial system in Indonesia and the government's efforts to eradicate corruption. Problems: 1. How is the law enforcement for Corruption Crimes at the Corruption Court at the Palembang District Court Class I-A Special; 2. What are the obstacles in law enforcement for Corruption Crimes at the Corruption Court at the Palembang District Court Class I-A Special?. The research method used is normative legal research, namely analyzing books and documents related to law enforcement of criminal acts of corruption and conducting library studies for the perfection of the data or materials studied, describing data and materials that are arranged in detail and systematically. From the results of the research found as follows: 1. Law enforcement in the case of a criminal act of corruption (case study No. 35/PID.SUS-TPK/2021/PNPLG), it was decided that the defendant was proven legally and convincingly guilty of committing a “corruption crime together. equally and continuously” as stated in the First Alternative Compulsive Charge of violating Article 12 letter a of Law No. 31 of 1999 jo. Law No. 20 of 2021 concerning Eradication of Criminal Acts of Corruption jo. Article 55 paragraph (1) of the 1st Criminal Code jo. Article 64 paragraph (1) of the Criminal Code. The defendant is charged with replacement money, the calculation of which is not from the audit of the competent authority, such as: BPK or BPKP; 2. Structural Barriers, the source of which is the practice of state and government administration; Instrumental Barriers, the source of which is the lack of supporting instruments in the form of laws and regulations; and Management Barriers, the source of which is the neglect or non-application of the principles of good management, commitment, fairness, transparency and accountability, thus preventing the handling of corruption crimes from proceeding properly. Keywords: Law Enforcement, Barriers and Corruption Crimes

Comparing Open-Ended Choice Experiments and Experimental Auctions: An Application to Golden Rice

We use two different experimental valuation methods to estimate consumer demand for genetically-modified golden rice. The first is an open-ended choice experiment (OECE) where participants name the quantities of golden rice and conventional rice demanded at each of several price combinations, one of which will be randomly chosen as binding. This allows us to estimate market demand by aggregating demand across participants. This estimate of market demand also allows us to estimate own-price elasticity and consumer surplus for golden rice. Comparing willingness-to-pay (WTP) estimates from the OECE with those from a uniform-price auction, we find that OECE WTP estimates exhibit less affiliation across rounds, and the effects of positive and negative information under the OECE are more consistent with prior expectations and existing studies. We also find that while auction WTP estimates more than double across five rounds, OECE WTP estimates are stable across rounds and are always roughly equal to those from the final auction round.choice experiments, experimental auctions, golden rice, valuation

Äänen rakenteelliset sivutiesiirtymät puurakennuksissa

Tiivistelmä. Rakenteiden välityksellä tapahtuva äänen siirtyminen on puurakennuksissa monimutkaisempi ilmiö kuin vastaavassa betonirakennuksessa. Puurakennuksesta monimutkaisemman tekevät rakenteiden kiinnitysjärjestelmät, rakenteiden ja niiden liitoksien geometria sekä puun mekaaniset ja akustiset ominaisuudet. Rakentamista ohjaavissa määräyksissä erilaisten tilojen väliselle ääneneristävyydelle on asetettu vaatimuksia, joiden täyttäminen edellyttää sivuavien rakenteiden välityksellä siirtyvän äänen huomioimista rakennusten suunnittelussa. Jotta sivuavien rakenteiden välityksellä siirtyvä ääni voidaan huomioida suunnittelussa, täytyy ilmiö ja sen suuruuteen vaikuttavat tekijät tuntea puurakentamisen erityispiirteet huomioiden. Tutkimuksessa puurakennuksien sivutiesiirtymiin vaikuttavia tekijöitä etsittiin kansainväliseen kirjallisuuteen keskittyvällä state of the art -kirjallisuuskatsauksella. Myös tilojen välisen ääneneristävyyden tarkasteluun vakioitunutta arviointimallia, sen kehittämistä ja soveltuvuutta puurakenteiden arvioimiseen tarkasteltiin. Kirjallisuuskatsauksessa havaittuja ilmiöön liittyviä epämääräisyyksiä tutkittiin tarkemmin ja epävarmuuksien huomioimista rakennusten suunnittelussa pohdittiin arviointimallin käytännön soveltamisen kannalta. Arviointimallilla laskennallisesti määritettyjä tilojen välistä ääneneristävyyttä verrattiin ääneneristävyysmittauksien tuloksiin. Lopulta kuvitteellisien esimerkkitilojen ääneneristysvaatimukset täyttävät rakenneratkaisut määritettiin laskennallisesti. Puurakennusten sivutiesiirtymiä on tutkittu kattavasti ainoastaan ranka- ja CLT (ristiinliimattu massiivipuu) -rakenteisissa puurakennuksissa. Puurakenteiden liitoksille on tyypillistä niiden liitoseristävyyden merkittävä taajuusriippuvaisuus ja betonirakenteiden liitoksiin verrattuna useampi siirtymäteiden määrä sekä geometrian monimutkaisuus ja periodisuus. Rankarakenteiden tarkastelun haastavuutta lisää myös niiden äänen säteilyyn ja etäisyyden suhteen tapahtuvaan vaimenemiseen liittyvät ilmiöt. CLT:n dynaamiseen toimintaan liittyvät epävarmuudet vaikeuttavat sen lähtötietona tarvittavien ominaisuuksien määrittämistä ja toisaalta arviointimallissa käytettävän menetelmän valintaa ja soveltamista. Usean tutkimukseen perustuen CLT-tuotteiden sisäisen häviökertoimen lukuarvot saattavat erota merkittävästi eri laboratorioiden tai valmistajien tuotteiden välillä. CLT-rakenteille laskennallisesti määritetyt tilojen väliset ääneneristävyydet vastasivat kohtalaisesti mittauksien tuloksia, mutta epävarmuuksia oli etenkin oikeanlaisen liitoseristävyyden valinnassa ja ilmaääneneristävyyden määrittämisessä. Sivutiesiirtymä vaikutti merkittävästi CLT-rakenteiden kokonaisääneneristävyyteen. Rankarakenteisessa kohteessa laskennan tulos ei vastannut mitattua tulosta yhtä hyvin, mutta taajuustasossa esitetyistä sivuteiden ääneneristävyyksistä oli silti pääteltävissä jotain. Esimerkkitiloille tehdyt mitoitukset ehdottavat, ettei kaikkia tyypillisesti tehtäviä rakenteiden katkaisuja tai lisävuorauksia ole tarpeellista tehdä. Ainoastaan merkittävien sivuteiden eristävyyden parantamisella on vaikutusta tilojen väliseen kokonaisääneneristävyyteen. Puurakennuksissa tilojen välisen ääneneristävyyden laskennalliseen määrittämiseen liittyy useita epävarmuuksia, joihin alan tutkimus ei vielä vastaa. Arviointimenetelmää voi kuitenkin käyttää suunnittelun apuna tarkkuutta noudattaen, kun siihen liittyvät epävarmuudet on tiedostettu. Merkittävin jatkotutkimuksen aihe on diplomityön perusteella liitoseristävyyden määrittäminen laskennallisesti.Flanking sound transmission in wooden buildings. Abstract. Sound transmission via flanking elements is a more complex phenomenon in wooden buildings than in corresponding concrete buildings. Complexity of the sound transmission in wooden buildings is a consequence of complicated joints, geometry of the elements and connections and the mechanical and the acoustical properties of wood. Regulations guiding the construction sets requirements for sound insulation between different kind of rooms, thus flanking sound transmission must be concerned in structural design of buildings. Prediction of flanking sound transmission in structural design requires understanding of the phenomena and the significance of the attributes defining it relating to wooden construction must be known. In this thesis, the phenomena defining flanking sound transmission in wooden buildings were explored as state-of-the-art -literature review, which was focused on international research. Also, the standardized prediction model for prediction of the sound insulation between adjacent rooms, its development and suitability for wooden buildings were studied. Uncertainties discovered in the literature review were further investigated and the consideration of the uncertainties were discussed in terms of application of the prediction model for design work. The prediction model was applied to reference rooms and the results were compared to the results obtained from measurements. Finally, the prediction model was applied to imaginary example rooms and the structural details for different requirements were determined with the use of the prediction model. Research concerning the flanking sound transmission in wooden buildings is currently available only for lightweight framed buildings and CLT (cross-laminated-timber) buildings. For wooden junctions, the quantity expressing the attenuation of vibration in junction is typically frequency-dependent and compared to junctions made of concrete the number of sound transmission paths is greater and the geometry is typically more complex and periodic. Framed structures exhibit difficulties regarding to sound radiation and attenuation of the vibration in terms of distance. The uncertainties regarding to dynamic properties of CLT complicate the prediction of properties of CLT needed as input data for the prediction model and also complicate the application of the prediction model with structures involving CLT-elements. Based on several publications, the internal loss factor of CLT can vary significantly between different laboratories or manufacturers. For CLT-based rooms, the predicted sound insulation between rooms corresponded moderately with results obtained from measurements, but there are uncertainties concerning especially the quantities expressing the junction attenuation and the prediction of airborne sound insulation of single CLT-element. Flanking sound transmission significantly affects the total sound insulation in CLT-based rooms. For framed structures, the predicted sound insulation between rooms did not match well with the measurement results, but something can still be deduced from the results. The results of investigations relating to example rooms suggest, that the typical disconnections of the elements or the additional linings are not always necessary. Only the improvement of the flanking sound insulation of significant flanking path will lead to improvements in total sound insulation. In the prediction of the sound insulation of adjacent rooms in wooden buildings, there are several uncertainties which research does not answer yet. The prediction model can still be used as a design tool with precision when the uncertainties are well known by the designer or the engineer. The most remarkable subject for further research is defining the quantities describing the attenuation of vibration in junctions by means of numerical simulations

Supporting Worth Mapping with Sentence Completion

Expectations for design and evaluation approaches are set by the development practices within which they are used. Worth Centred Development (WCD) seeks to both shape and fit such practices. We report a study that combined two WCD approaches. Sentence completion gathered credible quantitative data on user values, which were used to identify relevant values and aversions of two player groups for an online gambling site. These values provided human value elements for a complementary WCD approach of worth mapping. Initial worth maps were extended in three workshops, which focused on outcomes and user experiences that could be better addressed in the current product and associated marketing materials. We describe how worth maps were prepared for, and presented in, workshops, and how product owners and associated business roles evaluated the combination of WCD approaches. Based on our experiences, we offer practical advice on this combinination

Random Sample Community-Based Health Surveys: Does the Effort to Reach Participants Matter?

Objectives: Conducting health surveys with community-based random samples are essential to capture an otherwise unreachable population, but these surveys can be biased if the effort to reach participants is insufficient. This study determines the desirable amount of effort to minimise such bias. Design: A household-based health survey with random sampling and face-to-face interviews. Up to 11 visits, organised by canvassing rounds, were made to obtain an interview. Setting: Single-family homes in an underserved and understudied population in North Miami-Dade County, Florida, USA. Participants: Of a probabilistic sample of 2200 household addresses, 30 corresponded to empty lots, 74 were abandoned houses, 625 households declined to participate and 265 could not be reached and interviewed within 11 attempts. Analyses were performed on the 1206 remaining households. Primary outcome: Each household was asked if any of their members had been told by a doctor that they had high blood pressure, heart disease including heart attack, cancer, diabetes, anxiety/ depression, obesity or asthma. Responses to these questions were analysed by the number of visit attempts needed to obtain the interview. Results: Return per visit fell below 10% after four attempts, below 5% after six attempts and below 2% after eight attempts. As the effort increased, household size decreased, while household income and the percentage of interviewees active and employed increased; proportion of the seven health conditions decreased, four of which did so significantly: heart disease 20.4–9.2%, high blood pressure 63.5–58.1%, anxiety/depression 24.4–9.2% and obesity 21.8–12.6%. Beyond the fifth attempt, however, cumulative percentages varied by less than 1% and precision varied by less than 0.1%. Conclusions: In spite of the early and steep drop, sustaining at least five attempts to reach participants is necessary to reduce selection bias

Factors Affecting Compliance With Colorectal Cancer Screening Among Households Residing in the Largely Haitian Community of Little Haiti, Miami-Dade County, Florida

The United States Black population is disproportionately affected by colorectal cancer (CRC) in terms of incidence and mortality. Studies suggest that screening rates are lower among Blacks compared with non-Hispanic Whites (NHWs). However, studies on CRC screening within Black subgroups are lacking. This study examined disparities in blood stool test (BST) compliance and colonoscopy use by race/ethnicity (Haitian, NHW, non-Hispanic Black [NHB], and Hispanic) among randomly selected households in Little Haiti, Miami-Dade County, Florida.This study used cross-sectional, health and wellness data from a random-sample, population-based survey conducted within 951 households in Little Haiti between November 2011 and December 2012. BST compliance and colonoscopy use were self-reported and defined, conservatively, as the use of BST within the past 2 years and the ever use of colonoscopy by any household member. Factors associated with BST compliance and colonoscopy use were identified using logistic regression models. Analyses were restricted to households containing at least 1 member ≥50 years (n = 666).Nearly half of the households were compliant with BST (rate [95% confidence interval (CI)] = 45% [41%-49%]) and completed colonoscopy (rate [95% CI] = 53% [49%-58%]). Compliance with BST was not associated with race/ethnicity (P = 0.76). Factors independently associated with BST compliance included low educational attainment (adjusted odds ratio [AOR] = 0.63, P = 0.03), being single (AOR = 0.47, P = 0.004), retirement (AOR = 1.96, P = 0.01), and the presence of diagnosed health problems (AOR = 1.24, P = 0.01). Colonoscopy use was lower among Haitian households (46%) compared with NHW (63%), NHB (62%), and Hispanic households (54%) (P = 0.002). Factors independently associated with colonoscopy use included identifying as NHB (compared with Haitian) (AOR = 1.80, P = 0.05), being single (AOR = 0.44, P = 0.001), retirement (AOR = 1.86, P = 0.02), lack of continuous insurance (AOR = 0.45, P \u3c 0.001), and the presence of diagnosed health problems (AOR = 1.44, P \u3c 0.001) and physical limitations/disabilities (AOR = 1.88, P = 0.05).Compliance with BST and use of colonoscopy are low within households in the Little Haiti community. Significant disparities in the use of colonoscopy exist between Haitian and NHB households. Barriers and facilitators of colonoscopy within each racial/ethnic group need to be identified as the next step to developing culturally appropriate, community-based interventions aimed at increasing colonoscopy use in this large minority population

Predictors of anemia in preschool children: Biomarkers Reflecting Inflammation and Nutritional Determinants of Anemia (BRINDA) project.

Background: A lack of information on the etiology of anemia has hampered the design and monitoring of anemia-control efforts.Objective: We aimed to evaluate predictors of anemia in preschool children (PSC) (age range: 6-59 mo) by country and infection-burden category.Design: Cross-sectional data from 16 surveys (n = 29,293) from the Biomarkers Reflecting Inflammation and Nutritional Determinants of Anemia (BRINDA) project were analyzed separately and pooled by category of infection burden. We assessed relations between anemia (hemoglobin concentration <110 g/L) and severe anemia (hemoglobin concentration <70 g/L) and individual-level (age, anthropometric measures, micronutrient deficiencies, malaria, and inflammation) and household-level predictors; we also examined the proportion of anemia with concomitant iron deficiency (defined as an inflammation-adjusted ferritin concentration <12 μg/L). Countries were grouped into 4 categories on the basis of risk and burden of infectious disease, and a pooled multivariable logistic regression analysis was conducted for each group.Results: Iron deficiency, malaria, breastfeeding, stunting, underweight, inflammation, low socioeconomic status, and poor sanitation were each associated with anemia in >50% of surveys. Associations between breastfeeding and anemia were attenuated by controlling for child age, which was negatively associated with anemia. The most consistent predictors of severe anemia were malaria, poor sanitation, and underweight. In multivariable pooled models, child age, iron deficiency, and stunting independently predicted anemia and severe anemia. Inflammation was generally associated with anemia in the high- and very high-infection groups but not in the low- and medium-infection groups. In PSC with anemia, 50%, 30%, 55%, and 58% of children had concomitant iron deficiency in low-, medium-, high-, and very high-infection categories, respectively.Conclusions: Although causal inference is limited by cross-sectional survey data, results suggest anemia-control programs should address both iron deficiency and infections. The relative importance of factors that are associated with anemia varies by setting, and thus, country-specific data are needed to guide programs

Differentiation between copal and amber by their structure and thermal behaviour

The relationships between the polymerization related to structure and the composition of different types of natural resins were determined. Analyses were carried out by Fourier transform infrared spectroscopy (FTIR), differential thermal analysis–thermogravimetry (DTA-TG) and hot stage microscopy (HSM). Copal specimens were collected from the Mai-Ndombe Lake, Democratic Republic of Congo, and amber pieces that came from Bitterfeld, Germany, and from Kaliningrad, Russia. FTIRspectra of copal show a vibrational band at 1643 cm−1 (C=O stretching) attributed to communic acids, while amber shows a band at 1735 cm−1 associated with ester-group vibrations and a shoulder at about 3340 cm−1, suggesting partial oxidization.DTA shows the main exothermic peak, related to the combustion, at 546–552 °C in amber and at 518 °C in copal. The derivative thermogravimetry (DTG) peaks vary in the different resin types; in amber, they occur at 333–335, 401–404 and 548–555 °C and are related to mass losses of 31, 26 and 39 mass%, respectively; copal peaks are at 394 and 507 °C, with mass losses of 71 and 27 mass%, respectively. In copal, hot stage microscopy (HSM) shows the start of sintering at 131 °C, followed by an expansion produced by the material decomposition and the generation of gases that cannot be released because of the material plastic behaviour. Finally, the increase in pressure produces an explosion that results in a lower viscosity of the liquid, which at this point can no longer support the internal pressure of gases. In amber samples, a smaller decrease in viscosity is observed and the start of sintering occurs at 150 °C with no significant change in their morphology.</p